Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sun Oct 25?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 59° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 80°. The day verified at 81° against the SAT observations — cloudy.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 75° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 75–83° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 59° | 80° | — | 88° | — | — | 59–88° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | — | 73° | 78° | — | 66° | — | — | 66–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | 72° | 76° | 80° | — | 86° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 72° | 80° | 86° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 84° | 79° | 83° | — | 82° | — | — | 79–84° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 73° | 77° | 83° | 81° | 84° | — | — | 73–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 78° | 77° | 82° | 79° | 81° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 80° | 77° | 82° | 79° | 80° | — | — | 77–82° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 79° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 83° | 80° | 78–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 78° | 79° | 80° | 80° | 82° | 79° | 82° | 78–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 79° | 79° | 82° | 82° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 79–82° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 78° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 82° | 78–82° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 79° | 78° | 81° | 80° | 82° | 81° | 83° | 78–83° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 79° | 78° | 80° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 79° | 78–81° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.