Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Sun Oct 18?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 71° to 77°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 71°. The day verified at 73° against the SAT observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 83° | — | — | 83° | — | — | 83–83° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 74° | 77° | 71° | — | 74° | — | — | 71–77° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 68° | 80° | 66° | — | 70° | — | — | 66–80° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 74° | 72° | 79° | — | 74° | — | — | 72–79° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 88° | 68° | 74° | — | 72° | — | — | 68–88° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 86° | 67° | — | 67° | — | — | 64–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 68° | 73° | 87° | 69° | 69° | — | — | 68–87° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 70° | 68° | 79° | 64° | 64° | — | — | 64–79° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 71° | 69° | 81° | 78° | 76° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 71° | 76° | 72° | 79° | 83° | 72° | 71–83° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 69° | 70° | 75° | 70° | 76° | 77° | 71° | 69–77° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 70° | 68° | 71° | 68° | 74° | 72° | 71° | 68–74° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 68° | 72° | 69° | 73° | 71° | 71° | 68–73° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 71° | 68° | 72° | 70° | 73° | 72° | 70° | 68–73° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 71° | 69° | 71° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 72° | 69–73° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.