Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Oct 16?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Fri Oct 16 high anywhere from 74° to 84°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 77°. The day verified at 75° against the SAT observations — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 6° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-01 | — | 79° | — | — | 88° | — | — | 79–88° |
| 14d · 2026-10-02 | 74° | 76° | 84° | — | 83° | — | — | 74–84° |
| 13d · 2026-10-03 | 84° | 88° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 12d · 2026-10-04 | 81° | 73° | 82° | — | 75° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 11d · 2026-10-05 | 76° | 76° | 82° | — | 79° | — | — | 76–82° |
| 10d · 2026-10-06 | 73° | 68° | 82° | — | 69° | — | — | 68–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-07 | 88° | 87° | 81° | 80° | 84° | — | — | 80–88° |
| 8d · 2026-10-08 | 75° | 86° | 74° | 87° | 85° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 7d · 2026-10-09 | 76° | 87° | 85° | 83° | 88° | — | — | 76–88° |
| 6d · 2026-10-10 | 74° | 73° | 85° | 77° | 75° | 75° | 83° | 73–85° |
| 5d · 2026-10-11 | 79° | 74° | 88° | 85° | 80° | 87° | 88° | 74–88° |
| 4d · 2026-10-12 | — | 74° | 83° | 82° | 79° | 78° | 80° | 74–83° |
| 3d · 2026-10-13 | 75° | 73° | 76° | 79° | 75° | 78° | 77° | 73–79° |
| 2d · 2026-10-14 | 75° | 74° | 79° | 78° | 76° | 76° | 76° | 74–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-15 | 76° | 75° | 81° | 77° | 76° | 77° | 78° | 75–81° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.