Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Wed Oct 14?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Wed Oct 14 high anywhere from 70° to 85°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 95° against the SAT observations — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.8°. GFS ran 7° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Oct 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-29 | — | 82° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 82–85° |
| 14d · 2026-09-30 | 70° | 75° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 70–85° |
| 13d · 2026-10-01 | 73° | 72° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 72–87° |
| 12d · 2026-10-02 | 75° | 90° | 91° | — | 89° | — | — | 75–91° |
| 11d · 2026-10-03 | 79° | 84° | 86° | — | 92° | — | — | 79–92° |
| 10d · 2026-10-04 | 85° | 65° | 89° | — | 80° | — | — | 65–89° |
| 9d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 82° | 88° | 87° | 92° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 8d · 2026-10-06 | 87° | 90° | 90° | 80° | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 7d · 2026-10-07 | 90° | 90° | 92° | 88° | 91° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 6d · 2026-10-08 | 90° | 89° | 88° | 93° | 89° | 94° | 88° | 88–94° |
| 5d · 2026-10-09 | 89° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 94° | 89–94° |
| 4d · 2026-10-10 | 89° | 90° | 93° | 94° | 89° | 94° | 90° | 89–94° |
| 3d · 2026-10-11 | 89° | 89° | 92° | 93° | 86° | 92° | 92° | 86–93° |
| 2d · 2026-10-12 | — | 88° | 92° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 91° | 88–93° |
| 1d · 2026-10-13 | 90° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 88–94° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.