Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Thu Oct 1?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Thu Oct 1 high anywhere from 88° to 98°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 84° against the SAT observations, with 2.12 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.4°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-16 | — | 80° | — | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 14d · 2026-09-17 | 88° | 89° | 90° | — | 98° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 13d · 2026-09-18 | 90° | 83° | 90° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 12d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 79° | 77° | — | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 11d · 2026-09-20 | 87° | 85° | 91° | — | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-21 | 91° | 80° | 83° | — | 92° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 9d · 2026-09-22 | 87° | 76° | 87° | 85° | 92° | — | — | 76–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-23 | 89° | 91° | 87° | 72° | 82° | — | — | 72–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-24 | 90° | 92° | 90° | 80° | 95° | — | — | 80–95° |
| 6d · 2026-09-25 | 87° | 90° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 96° | — | 83–96° |
| 5d · 2026-09-26 | 83° | 80° | 92° | 80° | 88° | 84° | 91° | 80–92° |
| 4d · 2026-09-27 | 85° | 79° | 87° | 81° | 79° | 83° | 83° | 79–87° |
| 3d · 2026-09-28 | 82° | 82° | 89° | 86° | 88° | 89° | 84° | 82–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-29 | 82° | 83° | 87° | 83° | 90° | 84° | 82° | 82–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-30 | 81° | 83° | 82° | 86° | 86° | 82° | 84° | 81–86° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.