Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Wed Sep 16?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
13 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Wed Sep 16 high anywhere from 92° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 98° against the SAT observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 16 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-01 | — | 96° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 96–96° |
| 14d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 88° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 13d · 2026-09-03 | 97° | 95° | 92° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–100° |
| 12d · 2026-09-04 | 96° | 90° | 94° | — | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 11d · 2026-09-05 | 97° | 92° | 96° | — | 97° | — | — | 92–97° |
| 10d · 2026-09-06 | 92° | 94° | 91° | — | 87° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-07 | 97° | 93° | 93° | — | 94° | — | — | 93–97° |
| 8d · 2026-09-08 | 96° | 96° | 94° | 95° | 86° | — | — | 86–96° |
| 7d · 2026-09-09 | 96° | 96° | 93° | 98° | 98° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 6d · 2026-09-10 | 95° | 96° | 94° | 95° | 99° | 97° | — | 94–99° |
| 5d · 2026-09-11 | 96° | 97° | 98° | 97° | 101° | 100° | 99° | 96–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-12 | 96° | 95° | 97° | 95° | 100° | 100° | 91° | 91–100° |
| 3d · 2026-09-13 | 95° | 94° | 97° | 95° | 99° | 97° | 93° | 93–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-14 | 95° | 95° | 97° | 95° | 99° | 97° | 96° | 95–99° |
| 1d · 2026-09-15 | 96° | 95° | 98° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 97° | 95–100° |
| 0d · 2026-09-16 | 95° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 101° | 98° | 98° | 95–101° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.