Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Thu Sep 10?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
14 days out, 4 models put San Antonio's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 84° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 96°. The day verified at 98° against the SAT observations — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.2°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 94° | — | — | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 100° | 97° | 84° | — | 102° | — | — | 84–102° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 95° | 98° | 93° | — | 101° | — | — | 93–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 100° | 90° | 92° | — | 98° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 92° | 90° | 87° | — | 106° | — | — | 87–106° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 91° | 94° | 95° | — | 102° | — | — | 91–102° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 93° | 98° | 92° | 97° | 103° | — | — | 92–103° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 96° | 93° | 96° | 98° | 97° | — | — | 93–98° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 95° | 96° | 96° | 98° | 97° | — | — | 95–98° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 95° | 95° | 95° | 96° | 98° | 98° | 95° | 95–98° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 97° | 96° | 99° | 97° | 101° | 98° | 97° | 96–101° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 97° | 96° | 98° | 96° | 99° | 101° | 98° | 96–101° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 96° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 98° | 99° | 96° | 96–99° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 95° | 94° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 94–97° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 94° | 94° | 95° | 96° | 97° | 96° | 96° | 94–97° |
| actual | 98° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.