The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Sep 11?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 80° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 89° against the SLC observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 80–93; it hit 89. ECMWF led (off 0.6°F); UKMO ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-27 47° 74° 47–74°
14d · 2026-08-28 93° 84° 82° 80° 80–93°
13d · 2026-08-29 87° 76° 90° 99° 76–99°
12d · 2026-08-30 76° 88° 78° 95° 76–95°
11d · 2026-08-31 75° 75° 66° 92° 66–92°
10d · 2026-09-01 70° 80° 74° 76° 70–80°
9d · 2026-09-02 77° 71° 81° 75° 67° 67–81°
8d · 2026-09-03 89° 89° 89° 70° 74° 70–89°
7d · 2026-09-04 90° 86° 93° 89° 78° 78–93°
6d · 2026-09-05 87° 92° 91° 89° 81° 89° 86° 81–92°
5d · 2026-09-06 88° 90° 88° 86° 92° 89° 83° 83–92°
4d · 2026-09-07 87° 87° 84° 85° 85° 89° 84° 84–89°
3d · 2026-09-08 84° 87° 85° 87° 87° 83° 82° 82–87°
2d · 2026-09-09 86° 85° 86° 87° 88° 87° 82° 82–88°
1d · 2026-09-10 87° 86° 88° 86° 88° 86° 84° 84–88°
0d · 2026-09-11 87° 87° 88° 87° 87° 86° 85° 85–88°
actual 89°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.