Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Sep 11?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Sep 11 high anywhere from 25° to 32°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 32° against the SLC observations, with 0.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 11 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-27 | 32° | 24° | — | — | 28° | — | — | 24–32° |
| 14d · 2026-08-28 | 31° | 32° | 28° | — | 25° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 13d · 2026-08-29 | 21° | 22° | 32° | — | 30° | — | — | 21–32° |
| 12d · 2026-08-30 | 18° | 26° | 25° | — | 32° | — | — | 18–32° |
| 11d · 2026-08-31 | 23° | 25° | 19° | — | 30° | — | — | 19–30° |
| 10d · 2026-09-01 | 23° | 31° | 23° | — | 25° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 9d · 2026-09-02 | 29° | 25° | 27° | 24° | 24° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 8d · 2026-09-03 | 33° | 27° | 31° | 21° | 31° | — | — | 21–33° |
| 7d · 2026-09-04 | 32° | 31° | 34° | 32° | 32° | 29° | — | 29–34° |
| 6d · 2026-09-05 | 31° | 32° | 33° | 32° | 31° | 33° | 30° | 30–33° |
| 5d · 2026-09-06 | 31° | 32° | 30° | 30° | 31° | 32° | 29° | 29–32° |
| 4d · 2026-09-07 | 30° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 30° | 29° | 29–30° |
| 3d · 2026-09-08 | 29° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 28° | 28–30° |
| 2d · 2026-09-09 | 30° | 30° | 31° | 30° | 31° | 31° | 28° | 28–31° |
| 1d · 2026-09-10 | 31° | 30° | 31° | 30° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 29–31° |
| actual | 32° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.