Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 10?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 80° to 93°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 89° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.6°. AIGFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | 75° | 82° | — | — | 73° | — | — | 73–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 90° | 80° | 93° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–93° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 95° | 82° | — | 88° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 82° | 85° | — | 95° | — | — | 82–95° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 68° | 89° | 74° | — | 88° | — | — | 68–89° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 68° | 76° | 71° | — | 83° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 86° | 84° | 88° | 63° | 75° | — | — | 63–88° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 86° | 84° | 90° | 77° | 80° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 88° | 80° | 91° | 67° | 75° | 79° | — | 67–91° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 87° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 84–89° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 87° | 85° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 85–88° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 86° | 88° | 88° | 84° | 89° | 90° | 83° | 83–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 87° | 86° | 89° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 85° | 84–89° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 86° | 85° | 88° | 84° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 84–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 86° | 85° | 87° | 85° | 86° | 86° | 85° | 85–87° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.