The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 10?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 17° to 34°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 32° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 17–34; it hit 32. GFS led (off 0.9°C); AIGFS ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-26 28° 26° 26–28°
14d · 2026-08-27 28° 17° 34° 24° 17–34°
13d · 2026-08-28 34° 32° 28° 33° 28–34°
12d · 2026-08-29 26° 21° 30° 36° 21–36°
11d · 2026-08-30 31° 33° 24° 33° 24–33°
10d · 2026-08-31 21° 24° 21° 33° 21–33°
9d · 2026-09-01 26° 26° 31° 17° 19° 17–31°
8d · 2026-09-02 25° 27° 32° 25° 24° 24–32°
7d · 2026-09-03 31° 31° 33° 19° 29° 19–33°
6d · 2026-09-04 29° 28° 32° 30° 27° 29° 30° 27–32°
5d · 2026-09-05 31° 28° 31° 30° 31° 30° 30° 28–31°
4d · 2026-09-06 30° 31° 31° 29° 32° 31° 28° 28–32°
3d · 2026-09-07 30° 30° 32° 28° 31° 30° 30° 28–32°
2d · 2026-09-08 30° 30° 31° 29° 31° 30° 30° 29–31°
1d · 2026-09-09 30° 29° 31° 29° 30° 30° 30° 29–31°
0d · 2026-09-10 30° 29° 31° 30° 31° 31° 30° 29–31°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.