The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Sep 10?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 63° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 89° against the SLC observations — partly cloudy.

GFS landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 63–93; it hit 89. GFS led (off 1.7°F); AIGFS ran 4°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-26 83° 80° 80–83°
14d · 2026-08-27 82° 63° 93° 76° 63–93°
13d · 2026-08-28 93° 89° 82° 92° 82–93°
12d · 2026-08-29 80° 70° 85° 97° 70–97°
11d · 2026-08-30 87° 92° 74° 92° 74–92°
10d · 2026-08-31 70° 75° 71° 91° 70–91°
9d · 2026-09-01 80° 79° 88° 63° 67° 63–88°
8d · 2026-09-02 77° 80° 90° 77° 76° 76–90°
7d · 2026-09-03 88° 87° 91° 67° 83° 67–91°
6d · 2026-09-04 85° 83° 89° 86° 80° 85° 87° 80–89°
5d · 2026-09-05 87° 83° 88° 87° 87° 86° 87° 83–88°
4d · 2026-09-06 87° 88° 88° 84° 89° 88° 83° 83–89°
3d · 2026-09-07 87° 87° 89° 83° 88° 86° 85° 83–89°
2d · 2026-09-08 86° 85° 88° 84° 88° 86° 87° 84–88°
1d · 2026-09-09 86° 85° 87° 85° 86° 86° 86° 85–87°
0d · 2026-09-10 86° 85° 87° 87° 87° 87° 86° 85–87°
actual 89°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.