The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Sep 5?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 85° to 92°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 91° against the SLC observations — clear.

ICON landed closest, off by 1.7°. GEM ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 85–92; it hit 91. ICON led (off 1.7°F); GEM ran 3°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-21 76° 88° 76–88°
14d · 2026-08-22 89° 85° 90° 92° 85–92°
13d · 2026-08-23 85° 77° 93° 96° 77–96°
12d · 2026-08-24 68° 55° 89° 70° 55–89°
11d · 2026-08-25 73° 85° 83° 91° 73–91°
10d · 2026-08-26 75° 70° 81° 87° 70–87°
9d · 2026-08-27 71° 70° 93° 80° 84° 70–93°
8d · 2026-08-28 91° 94° 87° 75° 82° 75–94°
7d · 2026-08-29 89° 92° 82° 81° 93° 81–93°
6d · 2026-08-30 88° 90° 87° 90° 87° 78° 86° 78–90°
5d · 2026-08-31 88° 92° 88° 87° 88° 89° 87° 87–92°
4d · 2026-09-01 88° 90° 88° 86° 90° 88° 86° 86–90°
3d · 2026-09-02 88° 89° 88° 87° 90° 88° 88° 87–90°
2d · 2026-09-03 89° 89° 88° 88° 89° 88° 88° 88–89°
1d · 2026-09-04 89° 89° 88° 88° 90° 88° 88° 88–90°
0d · 2026-09-05 89° 89° 88° 88° 89° 89° 88° 88–89°
actual 91°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.