The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Sep 5?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Sep 5 high anywhere from 30° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 33° against the SLC observations — clear.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 33. ICON led (off 0.9°C); GEM ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Sep 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-21 — 25° — — 31° — — 25–31°
14d · 2026-08-22 32° 30° 32° — 33° — — 30–33°
13d · 2026-08-23 30° 25° 34° — 36° — — 25–36°
12d · 2026-08-24 20° 13° 32° — 21° — — 13–32°
11d · 2026-08-25 23° 29° 28° — 33° — — 23–33°
10d · 2026-08-26 24° 21° 27° — 31° — — 21–31°
9d · 2026-08-27 22° 21° 34° 26° 29° — — 21–34°
8d · 2026-08-28 33° 34° 31° 24° 28° — — 24–34°
7d · 2026-08-29 32° 33° 28° 27° 34° — — 27–34°
6d · 2026-08-30 31° 32° 30° 32° 31° 26° 30° 26–32°
5d · 2026-08-31 31° 33° 31° 30° 31° 32° 30° 30–33°
4d · 2026-09-01 31° 32° 31° 30° 32° 31° 30° 30–32°
3d · 2026-09-02 31° 32° 31° 31° 32° 31° 31° 31–32°
2d · 2026-09-03 31° 32° 31° 31° 32° 31° 31° 31–32°
1d · 2026-09-04 32° 32° 31° 31° 32° 31° 31° 31–32°
0d · 2026-09-05 32° 32° 31° 31° 32° 32° 31° 31–32°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.