The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Sep 4?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 77° to 95°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. The day verified at 90° against the SLC observations — clear.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 77–95; it hit 90. AIGFS led (off 0.6°F); UKMO ran 2°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-20 78° 81° 78–81°
14d · 2026-08-21 77° 95° 89° 86° 77–95°
13d · 2026-08-22 87° 85° 95° 88° 85–95°
12d · 2026-08-23 80° 77° 93° 97° 77–97°
11d · 2026-08-24 72° 82° 86° 78° 72–86°
10d · 2026-08-25 71° 81° 76° 77° 71–81°
9d · 2026-08-26 75° 72° 86° 79° 90° 72–90°
8d · 2026-08-27 88° 74° 85° 79° 82° 74–88°
7d · 2026-08-28 90° 90° 84° 83° 81° 81–90°
6d · 2026-08-29 88° 94° 88° 84° 94° 86° 78° 78–94°
5d · 2026-08-30 88° 92° 89° 87° 91° 85° 86° 85–92°
4d · 2026-08-31 88° 91° 87° 87° 89° 76° 85° 76–91°
3d · 2026-09-01 88° 90° 86° 89° 86° 87° 85° 85–90°
2d · 2026-09-02 89° 90° 87° 89° 89° 88° 84° 84–90°
1d · 2026-09-03 89° 90° 87° 89° 90° 88° 87° 87–90°
0d · 2026-09-04 89° 89° 88° 89° 89° 89° 88° 88–89°
actual 90°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.