Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Sep 4?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 80° to 97°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 88°. The day verified at 90° against the SLC observations — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-20 | 86° | 92° | — | — | 93° | — | — | 86–93° |
| 14d · 2026-08-21 | 80° | 89° | 89° | — | 97° | — | — | 80–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 82° | 75° | 95° | — | 89° | — | — | 75–95° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 79° | 78° | 93° | — | 88° | — | — | 78–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 63° | 70° | 86° | — | 83° | — | — | 63–86° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 74° | 78° | 76° | — | 87° | — | — | 74–87° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 68° | 70° | 86° | 79° | 84° | — | — | 68–86° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 80° | 72° | 85° | 79° | 90° | — | — | 72–90° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 90° | 88° | 84° | 83° | 90° | 86° | — | 83–90° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 87° | 94° | 88° | 84° | 91° | 72° | 78° | 72–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 87° | 91° | 88° | 87° | 90° | 79° | 86° | 79–91° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 90° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 81° | 85° | 81–90° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 88° | 90° | 85° | 89° | 88° | 88° | 85° | 85–90° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 89° | 90° | 87° | 89° | 89° | 88° | 84° | 84–90° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 89° | 90° | 87° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 88° | 87–90° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.