The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Fri Sep 4?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 25° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the SLC observations — clear.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 1° cold.

14 days out the models said 25–35; it hit 32. AIGFS led (off 0.3°C); UKMO ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-20 26° 27° 26–27°
14d · 2026-08-21 25° 35° 32° 30° 25–35°
13d · 2026-08-22 31° 29° 35° 31° 29–35°
12d · 2026-08-23 27° 25° 34° 36° 25–36°
11d · 2026-08-24 22° 28° 30° 25° 22–30°
10d · 2026-08-25 22° 27° 24° 25° 22–27°
9d · 2026-08-26 24° 22° 30° 26° 32° 22–32°
8d · 2026-08-27 31° 24° 30° 26° 28° 24–31°
7d · 2026-08-28 32° 32° 29° 28° 27° 27–32°
6d · 2026-08-29 31° 34° 31° 29° 35° 30° 26° 26–35°
5d · 2026-08-30 31° 33° 32° 31° 33° 30° 30° 30–33°
4d · 2026-08-31 31° 33° 31° 31° 32° 24° 29° 24–33°
3d · 2026-09-01 31° 32° 30° 32° 30° 31° 30° 30–32°
2d · 2026-09-02 32° 32° 30° 32° 32° 31° 29° 29–32°
1d · 2026-09-03 32° 32° 31° 32° 32° 31° 31° 31–32°
0d · 2026-09-04 32° 32° 31° 32° 32° 32° 31° 31–32°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.