Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Jul 29?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
12 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 93° to 102°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 93° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12d · 2026-07-17 | 93° | 102° | 98° | — | 94° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 11d · 2026-07-18 | 91° | 99° | 102° | — | 104° | — | — | 91–104° |
| 10d · 2026-07-19 | 89° | 98° | 103° | — | 108° | — | — | 89–108° |
| 9d · 2026-07-20 | 91° | 100° | 102° | 96° | 107° | — | — | 91–107° |
| 8d · 2026-07-21 | 88° | 99° | 98° | 98° | 103° | — | — | 88–103° |
| 7d · 2026-07-22 | 93° | 99° | 100° | 96° | 104° | 98° | — | 93–104° |
| 6d · 2026-07-23 | 94° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 104° | 101° | 96° | 94–104° |
| 5d · 2026-07-24 | 99° | 98° | 101° | 96° | 103° | 99° | 96° | 96–103° |
| 4d · 2026-07-25 | 96° | 97° | 100° | 97° | 101° | 100° | 98° | 96–101° |
| 3d · 2026-07-26 | 92° | 94° | 95° | 98° | 100° | 97° | 99° | 92–100° |
| 2d · 2026-07-27 | 90° | 96° | 95° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 93° | 90–102° |
| 1d · 2026-07-28 | 88° | 92° | 88° | 93° | 96° | 93° | 93° | 88–96° |
| actual | 93° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.