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Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Wed Jul 29?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

12 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Wed Jul 29 high anywhere from 34° to 39°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 3° cool.

12 days out the models said 34–39; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.0°C); AIFS ran 3°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Jul 29 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
12d · 2026-07-17 34° 39° 37° — 34° — — 34–39°
11d · 2026-07-18 33° 37° 39° — 40° — — 33–40°
10d · 2026-07-19 32° 37° 39° — 42° — — 32–42°
9d · 2026-07-20 33° 38° 39° 36° 42° — — 33–42°
8d · 2026-07-21 31° 37° 36° 37° 39° — — 31–39°
7d · 2026-07-22 34° 37° 38° 36° 40° 37° — 34–40°
6d · 2026-07-23 34° 36° 36° 37° 40° 38° 35° 34–40°
5d · 2026-07-24 37° 37° 38° 35° 39° 37° 36° 35–39°
4d · 2026-07-25 35° 36° 38° 36° 38° 38° 36° 35–38°
3d · 2026-07-26 33° 35° 35° 36° 38° 36° 37° 33–38°
2d · 2026-07-27 32° 35° 35° 37° 37° 39° 34° 32–39°
1d · 2026-07-28 31° 33° 31° 34° 36° 34° 34° 31–36°
actual 34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.