Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Jul 28?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
11 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 88° to 101°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-17 | 94° | 101° | 88° | — | 96° | — | — | 88–101° |
| 10d · 2026-07-18 | 94° | 100° | 99° | — | 103° | — | — | 94–103° |
| 9d · 2026-07-19 | 97° | 99° | 103° | 96° | 108° | — | — | 96–108° |
| 8d · 2026-07-20 | 96° | 98° | 101° | 96° | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 7d · 2026-07-21 | 96° | 98° | 102° | 96° | 103° | 98° | — | 96–103° |
| 6d · 2026-07-22 | 92° | 98° | 103° | 96° | 102° | 98° | 94° | 92–103° |
| 5d · 2026-07-23 | 91° | 97° | 101° | 95° | 103° | 99° | 98° | 91–103° |
| 4d · 2026-07-24 | 98° | 98° | 103° | 97° | 102° | 98° | 96° | 96–103° |
| 3d · 2026-07-25 | 94° | 98° | 101° | 101° | 102° | 99° | 100° | 94–102° |
| 2d · 2026-07-26 | 94° | 96° | 95° | 99° | 100° | 99° | 98° | 94–100° |
| 1d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 97° | 94° | 99° | 98° | 97° | 95° | 94–99° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.