The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Tue Jul 28?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

11 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 31° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 35° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 1° cold.

11 days out the models said 31–39; it hit 35. UKMO led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
11d · 2026-07-17 36° 36° 31° — 39° — — 31–39°
10d · 2026-07-18 37° 38° 37° — 39° — — 37–39°
9d · 2026-07-19 36° 37° 39° 35° 42° — — 35–42°
8d · 2026-07-20 36° 37° 38° 36° 41° — — 36–41°
7d · 2026-07-21 36° 36° 39° 35° 40° — — 35–40°
6d · 2026-07-22 34° 37° 39° 36° 38° 36° 35° 34–39°
5d · 2026-07-23 34° 36° 38° 35° 39° 37° 36° 34–39°
4d · 2026-07-24 35° 37° 39° 36° 39° 37° 36° 35–39°
3d · 2026-07-25 36° 37° 38° 38° 39° 37° 38° 36–39°
2d · 2026-07-26 34° 35° 35° 38° 38° 36° 37° 34–38°
1d · 2026-07-27 34° 36° 36° 37° 37° 36° 36° 34–37°
0d · 2026-07-28 34° 36° 35° 36° 36° 36° 36° 34–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.