Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Jul 23?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 76° to 96°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 96° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.0°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 89° | 88° | 90° | 92° | 95° | 76° | 96° | 76–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 88° | 91° | 90° | 94° | 95° | 89° | 94° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 89° | 92° | 93° | 92° | 95° | 86° | 93° | 86–95° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 91° | 90° | 93° | 95° | 96° | 88° | 94° | 88–96° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 93° | 92° | 93° | 94° | 94° | 89° | 93° | 89–94° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 92° | 93° | 91° | 93° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 91–96° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.