Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Thu Jul 23?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
6 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 26° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 36° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 30° | 32° | 30° | 33° | 35° | 26° | 36° | 26–36° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 32° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 34° | 31° | 34° | 31–35° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 32° | 33° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 30° | 34° | 30–35° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 33° | 33° | 35° | 35° | 35° | 30° | 34° | 30–35° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 34° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 35° | 30° | 34° | 30–35° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 33° | 33° | 34° | 34° | 36° | 33° | 33° | 33–36° |
| 0d · 2026-07-23 | 34° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 36° | 34° | 33° | 33–36° |
| actual | 36° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.