How much rain the weather models forecast in Phoenix
Phoenix, Sky Harbor station · each model's rain in inches · the next 14 days · using data from 2026-10-28T12:50 UTC
Rain, day by day
boxes are the range, ticks are the models
How the rain is built
Each day's box runs from the driest model to the wettest, and each tick is one model's amount for that day. A box over one tick is one model forecasting rain the others do not. There is no median: when four models forecast no rain and one forecasts an inch, the median is zero, which hides the one wet model.
A model that forecasts no rain counts as a dry forecast, not a missing one: Models is every model with a forecast for that day, and Wet is how many of them forecast at least 0.01 in. Rain chance is the range across the models that publish one, which is not the same set: the AI models publish no chance, and some models publish a chance further out than their amounts reach. NBM and every other blend are left out, as they are everywhere on this page.
Each total counts only models with a forecast for every one of its days, so a model whose run ends sooner is not drawn drier than it forecast. The models left out are named under the totals; the longer the window, the more of them there are.
The wettest day is Sun Nov 1, where 7 of 7 models forecast rain in Phoenix: AIFS wettest at 1.94 in, the driest at 0.23 in.
How much rain, next 1 day
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Wed Oct 28 · 7 models forecast no rain.
- AIFS 0.00
- AIGFS 0.00
- ECMWF 0.00
- GEM 0.00
- GFS 0.00
- ICON 0.00
- UKMO 0.00
How much rain, next 2 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Thu Oct 29 · 7 models forecast no rain.
- AIFS 0.00
- AIGFS 0.00
- ECMWF 0.00
- GEM 0.00
- GFS 0.00
- ICON 0.00
- UKMO 0.00
How much rain, next 3 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Fri Oct 30, 1.11 in between the wettest and the driest.
- ECMWF 1.24
- AIFS 0.83
- ICON 0.50
- AIGFS 0.31
- UKMO 0.27
- GFS 0.21
- GEM 0.13
How much rain, next 4 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Sat Oct 31, 1.14 in between the wettest and the driest.
- ECMWF 1.33
- AIFS 1.08
- AIGFS 0.56
- ICON 0.56
- UKMO 0.27
- GFS 0.23
- GEM 0.19
How much rain, next 5 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Sun Nov 1, 2.56 in between the wettest and the driest.
- AIFS 3.02
- ECMWF 2.29
- GEM 1.80
- AIGFS 1.59
- UKMO 1.35
- ICON 1.01
- GFS 0.46
How much rain, next 6 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Mon Nov 2, 2.67 in between the wettest and the driest.
- AIFS 3.21
- ECMWF 2.73
- AIGFS 2.31
- GEM 1.84
- UKMO 1.55
- ICON 1.01
- GFS 0.54
How much rain, next 7 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Tue Nov 3, 2.67 in between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: UKMO.
- AIFS 3.21
- ECMWF 2.73
- AIGFS 2.31
- GEM 1.84
- ICON 1.01
- GFS 0.54
How much rain, next 8 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Wed Nov 4, 2.67 in between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: ICON, UKMO.
- AIFS 3.21
- ECMWF 2.73
- AIGFS 2.31
- GEM 1.84
- GFS 0.54
How much rain, next 9 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Thu Nov 5, 2.67 in between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: ICON, UKMO.
- AIFS 3.21
- ECMWF 2.73
- AIGFS 2.32
- GEM 1.84
- GFS 0.54
How much rain, next 10 days
Each model's own total, Wed Oct 28 to Fri Nov 6, 2.78 in between the wettest and the driest.
Left out, without a forecast for every one of these days: GEM, ICON, UKMO.
- AIFS 3.32
- ECMWF 2.73
- AIGFS 2.32
- GFS 0.54
| Day | Models | Wet | Range (in) | Wettest | Rain chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed Oct 28 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 0% 6 models |
| Thu Oct 29 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 13% 6 models |
| Fri Oct 30 | 7 | 7 | 0.13 to 1.24 | ECMWF 1.24 | 72% to 91% 6 models |
| Sat Oct 31 | 7 | 6 | 0.00 to 0.25 | AIFS 0.25 | 43% to 71% 6 models |
| Sun Nov 1 | 7 | 7 | 0.23 to 1.94 | AIFS 1.94 | 71% to 98% 6 models |
| Mon Nov 2 | 7 | 6 | 0.00 to 0.72 | AIGFS 0.72 | 31% to 60% 6 models |
| Tue Nov 3 | 6 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 10% 6 models |
| Wed Nov 4 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 14% 5 models |
| Thu Nov 5 | 5 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 8% 5 models |
| Fri Nov 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.00 to 0.12 | AIFS 0.12 | 6% to 14% 5 models |
| Sat Nov 7 | 4 | 1 | 0.00 to 1.01 | AIFS 1.01 | 0% to 23% 4 models |
| Sun Nov 8 | 4 | 1 | 0.00 to 0.04 | AIFS 0.04 | 4% to 14% 4 models |
| Mon Nov 9 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 2% to 6% 4 models |
| Tue Nov 10 | 4 | 0 | 0.00 to 0.00 | — | 0% to 6% 4 models |
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