Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Oct 23?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 80° to 92°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 82° against the PHX observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 2.3°. GEM ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 73° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 73–94° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 92° | 80° | 86° | — | 86° | — | — | 80–92° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 65° | 91° | 87° | — | 95° | — | — | 65–95° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 78° | 78° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 76° | 79° | — | 83° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 73° | 71° | 82° | — | 76° | — | — | 71–82° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 76° | 71° | 84° | 76° | 80° | — | — | 71–84° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 70° | 74° | 78° | 77° | 76° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 74° | 73° | 78° | 78° | 79° | — | — | 73–79° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 77° | 75° | 76° | 73° | 79° | 76° | 74° | 73–79° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 78° | 77° | 77° | 74° | 82° | 74° | 77° | 74–82° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 78° | 78° | 78° | 73° | 80° | 77° | 77° | 73–80° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 77° | 78° | 77° | 71° | 80° | 78° | 78° | 71–80° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 77° | 76° | 77° | 74° | 79° | 78° | 78° | 74–79° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 78° | 76° | 77° | 72° | 79° | 80° | 78° | 72–80° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.