Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Oct 23?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Oct 23 high anywhere from 26° to 33°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 25°. The day verified at 28° against the PHX observations — clear.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Oct 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-08 | — | 23° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 23–35° |
| 14d · 2026-10-09 | 33° | 26° | 30° | — | 30° | — | — | 26–33° |
| 13d · 2026-10-10 | 18° | 33° | 30° | — | 35° | — | — | 18–35° |
| 12d · 2026-10-11 | 25° | 26° | 29° | — | 31° | — | — | 25–31° |
| 11d · 2026-10-12 | — | 24° | 26° | — | 28° | — | — | 24–28° |
| 10d · 2026-10-13 | 23° | 22° | 28° | — | 24° | — | — | 22–28° |
| 9d · 2026-10-14 | 24° | 22° | 29° | 24° | 27° | — | — | 22–29° |
| 8d · 2026-10-15 | 21° | 23° | 26° | 25° | 25° | — | — | 21–26° |
| 7d · 2026-10-16 | 23° | 23° | 25° | 26° | 26° | — | — | 23–26° |
| 6d · 2026-10-17 | 25° | 24° | 24° | 23° | 26° | 24° | 24° | 23–26° |
| 5d · 2026-10-18 | 26° | 25° | 25° | 23° | 28° | 24° | 25° | 23–28° |
| 4d · 2026-10-19 | 26° | 26° | 25° | 23° | 27° | 25° | 25° | 23–27° |
| 3d · 2026-10-20 | 25° | 25° | 25° | 22° | 27° | 25° | 25° | 22–27° |
| 2d · 2026-10-21 | 25° | 25° | 25° | 24° | 26° | 26° | 25° | 24–26° |
| 1d · 2026-10-22 | 25° | 25° | 25° | 22° | 26° | 26° | 26° | 22–26° |
| actual | 28° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.