Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Oct 15?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 82° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 87°. The day verified at 88° against the PHX observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 87° | — | — | 95° | — | — | 87–95° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 82° | 83° | 94° | — | 94° | — | — | 82–94° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 87° | 84° | 88° | — | 101° | — | — | 84–101° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 83° | 87° | 86° | — | 94° | — | — | 83–94° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 79° | 87° | 80° | — | 93° | — | — | 79–93° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 88° | 88° | 83° | — | 86° | — | — | 83–88° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 89° | 84° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–89° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 78° | 80° | 76° | 85° | 80° | — | — | 76–85° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 90° | 80° | 83° | 86° | 82° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 89° | 82° | 81° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 82° | 81–89° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 88° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 87° | 88° | 85° | 83–88° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 84° | 91° | 85° | 83° | 93° | 80° | 84° | 80–93° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 87° | 86° | 85° | 91° | 87° | 84° | 84–91° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 85° | 86° | 87° | 84° | 89° | 87° | 86° | 84–89° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 88° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 90° | 87° | 86° | 86–90° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.