Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Oct 15?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHX observations
14 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 28° to 34°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 30°. The day verified at 31° against the PHX observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 1° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 31° | — | — | 35° | — | — | 31–35° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 28° | 28° | 34° | — | 34° | — | — | 28–34° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 30° | 29° | 31° | — | 38° | — | — | 29–38° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 28° | 30° | 30° | — | 35° | — | — | 28–35° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 26° | 30° | 27° | — | 34° | — | — | 26–34° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 31° | 31° | 28° | — | 30° | — | — | 28–31° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 30° | 32° | 29° | — | 27° | — | — | 27–32° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 26° | 26° | 25° | 29° | 26° | — | — | 25–29° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 32° | 27° | 28° | 30° | 28° | — | — | 27–32° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 31° | 28° | 27° | 29° | 30° | 30° | 28° | 27–31° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 31° | 30° | 28° | 29° | 31° | 31° | 30° | 28–31° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 29° | 33° | 30° | 28° | 34° | 27° | 29° | 27–34° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 31° | 30° | 29° | 33° | 31° | 29° | 29–33° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 30° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 32° | 30° | 30° | 29–32° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 31° | 30° | 31° | 30° | 32° | 30° | 30° | 30–32° |
| actual | 31° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHX observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.