Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sun Oct 18?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 61° to 75°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 59°. The day verified at 61° against the PHL observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 65° | — | — | 64° | — | — | 64–65° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 75° | 65° | 68° | — | 61° | — | — | 61–75° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 55° | 56° | 78° | — | 55° | — | — | 55–78° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 58° | 55° | 58° | — | 60° | — | — | 55–60° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 62° | 62° | 58° | — | 76° | — | — | 58–76° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 53° | 60° | 58° | — | 60° | — | — | 53–60° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 50° | 52° | 55° | 46° | 53° | — | — | 46–55° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 56° | 50° | 54° | 46° | 50° | — | — | 46–56° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 65° | 51° | 61° | 62° | 55° | — | — | 51–65° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 61° | 61° | 62° | 55° | 57° | 60° | 55–62° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 56° | 63° | 58° | 61° | 63° | 62° | 58° | 56–63° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 60° | 61° | 54° | 61° | 60° | 57° | 56° | 54–61° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 60° | 60° | 57° | 55° | 60° | 59° | 56° | 55–60° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 60° | 58° | 57° | 56° | 59° | 59° | 57° | 56–60° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 61° | 59° | 58° | 59° | 60° | 59° | 59° | 58–61° |
| actual | 61° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.