Was the forecast right for Philadelphia on Sun Oct 18?
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the PHL observations
14 days out, 4 models put Philadelphia's Sun Oct 18 high anywhere from 16° to 24°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 15°. The day verified at 16° against the PHL observations — clear.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. ECMWF ran 2° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 18 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Philadelphia scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-03 | — | 18° | — | — | 18° | — | — | 18–18° |
| 14d · 2026-10-04 | 24° | 18° | 20° | — | 16° | — | — | 16–24° |
| 13d · 2026-10-05 | 13° | 13° | 26° | — | 13° | — | — | 13–26° |
| 12d · 2026-10-06 | 14° | 13° | 15° | — | 15° | — | — | 13–15° |
| 11d · 2026-10-07 | 17° | 17° | 14° | — | 24° | — | — | 14–24° |
| 10d · 2026-10-08 | 12° | 16° | 14° | — | 16° | — | — | 12–16° |
| 9d · 2026-10-09 | 10° | 11° | 13° | 8° | 12° | — | — | 8–13° |
| 8d · 2026-10-10 | 13° | 10° | 12° | 8° | 10° | — | — | 8–13° |
| 7d · 2026-10-11 | 18° | 10° | 16° | 17° | 13° | — | — | 10–18° |
| 6d · 2026-10-12 | — | 16° | 16° | 17° | 13° | 14° | 16° | 13–17° |
| 5d · 2026-10-13 | 13° | 17° | 14° | 16° | 17° | 17° | 14° | 13–17° |
| 4d · 2026-10-14 | 16° | 16° | 12° | 16° | 16° | 14° | 13° | 12–16° |
| 3d · 2026-10-15 | 15° | 16° | 14° | 13° | 15° | 15° | 13° | 13–16° |
| 2d · 2026-10-16 | 16° | 15° | 14° | 13° | 15° | 15° | 14° | 13–16° |
| 1d · 2026-10-17 | 16° | 15° | 14° | 15° | 16° | 15° | 15° | 14–16° |
| actual | 16° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Philadelphia — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the PHL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.