Was the forecast right for Paris on Tue Sep 8?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
9 days out, 5 models put Paris's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 67° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. The day verified at 81° against the LFPB observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.0°. AIFS ran 5° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 67° | 74° | 70° | 84° | 79° | — | — | 67–84° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 75° | 78° | 83° | 76° | 84° | — | — | 75–84° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 70° | 72° | 75° | 72° | 86° | — | — | 70–86° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 70° | 71° | 78° | 69° | 75° | 69° | 76° | 69–78° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 68° | 70° | 76° | 70° | 73° | 73° | 70° | 68–76° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 71° | 66° | 68° | 70° | 73° | 67° | 69° | 66–73° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 71° | 69° | 66° | 71° | 75° | 68° | 70° | 66–75° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 73° | 71° | 72° | 73° | 75° | 68° | 75° | 68–75° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 74° | 79° | 76° | 78° | 82° | 79° | 74° | 74–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-08 | 76° | 77° | 77° | 79° | 82° | 80° | 78° | 76–82° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.