Was the forecast right for Paris on Tue Sep 8?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
9 days out, 5 models put Paris's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 20° to 29°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 27° against the LFPB observations, with 1.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 20° | 23° | 21° | 29° | 26° | — | — | 20–29° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 24° | 26° | 28° | 25° | 29° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 21° | 22° | 24° | 22° | 30° | — | — | 21–30° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 21° | 22° | 26° | 20° | 24° | 21° | 25° | 20–26° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 20° | 21° | 24° | 21° | 23° | 23° | 21° | 20–24° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 22° | 19° | 20° | 21° | 23° | 20° | 20° | 19–23° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 22° | 20° | 19° | 21° | 24° | 20° | 21° | 19–24° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 23° | 21° | 22° | 23° | 24° | 20° | 24° | 20–24° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 24° | 26° | 24° | 26° | 28° | 26° | 24° | 24–28° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.