Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Sep 7?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
8 days out, 5 models put Paris's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 72° to 89°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 84° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 72° | 84° | 76° | 76° | 89° | — | — | 72–89° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 77° | 88° | 81° | 85° | 89° | — | — | 77–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 78° | 80° | 75° | 81° | 88° | 79° | 78° | 75–88° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 84° | 86° | 78° | 85° | 85° | 80° | 79° | 78–86° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 79° | 86° | 83° | 85° | 86° | 84° | 78° | 78–86° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 79° | 81° | 82° | 86° | 85° | 79° | 80° | 79–86° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 77° | 83° | 79° | 84° | 88° | 80° | 81° | 77–88° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 78° | 82° | 81° | 84° | 85° | 81° | 81° | 78–85° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.