Was the forecast right for Paris on Mon Sep 7?
Paris, Île-de-France Region · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LFPB observations
8 days out, 5 models put Paris's Mon Sep 7 high anywhere from 22° to 32°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 29° against the LFPB observations — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 7 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Paris scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-30 | 22° | 29° | 25° | 24° | 32° | — | — | 22–32° |
| 7d · 2026-08-31 | 25° | 31° | 27° | 29° | 32° | — | — | 25–32° |
| 6d · 2026-09-01 | 25° | 27° | 24° | 27° | 31° | 26° | 25° | 24–31° |
| 5d · 2026-09-02 | 29° | 30° | 26° | 30° | 29° | 27° | 26° | 26–30° |
| 4d · 2026-09-03 | 26° | 30° | 28° | 30° | 30° | 29° | 25° | 25–30° |
| 3d · 2026-09-04 | 26° | 27° | 28° | 30° | 29° | 26° | 27° | 26–30° |
| 2d · 2026-09-05 | 25° | 28° | 26° | 29° | 31° | 27° | 27° | 25–31° |
| 1d · 2026-09-06 | 26° | 28° | 27° | 29° | 29° | 27° | 27° | 26–29° |
| 0d · 2026-09-07 | 27° | 29° | 29° | 29° | 30° | 28° | 28° | 27–30° |
| actual | 29° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Paris — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LFPB observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.