Was the forecast right for Orlando on Tue Aug 25?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
6 days out, 7 models put Orlando's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 92° to 94°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 95° against the ORL observations — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 5° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-19 | 92° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 94° | 94° | 92–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 91° | 92° | 93° | 90° | 96° | 94° | 91° | 90–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 91° | 94° | 93° | 92° | 96° | 94° | 97° | 91–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 92° | 94° | 92° | 94° | 97° | 90° | 93° | 90–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 90° | 93° | 91° | 92° | 98° | 94° | 88° | 88–98° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 91° | 94° | 90° | 91° | 97° | 91° | 94° | 90–97° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.