Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Jul 26?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
9 days out, 5 models put Orlando's Sun Jul 26 high anywhere from 88° to 99°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 92° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.06 in of precipitation — rain.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 5° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Jul 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-17 | 91° | 88° | 93° | 98° | 99° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 8d · 2026-07-18 | 92° | 88° | 91° | 96° | 100° | — | — | 88–100° |
| 7d · 2026-07-19 | 91° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 97° | — | — | 86–97° |
| 6d · 2026-07-20 | 93° | 91° | 91° | 91° | 93° | 90° | 94° | 90–94° |
| 5d · 2026-07-21 | 89° | 92° | 94° | 95° | 96° | 86° | 90° | 86–96° |
| 4d · 2026-07-22 | 92° | 91° | 92° | 94° | 97° | 87° | 97° | 87–97° |
| 3d · 2026-07-23 | 91° | 88° | 87° | 96° | 98° | 89° | 88° | 87–98° |
| 2d · 2026-07-24 | 90° | 88° | 87° | 97° | 95° | 92° | 95° | 87–97° |
| 1d · 2026-07-25 | 92° | 91° | 92° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 95° | 91–98° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.