Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Mon Sep 21?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 81° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 90° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 2.0°. GEM ran 3° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-06 | — | 88° | — | — | 82° | — | — | 82–88° |
| 14d · 2026-09-07 | 81° | 82° | 87° | — | 87° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 13d · 2026-09-08 | 82° | 79° | 82° | — | 91° | — | — | 79–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-09 | 88° | 77° | 80° | — | 90° | — | — | 77–90° |
| 11d · 2026-09-10 | 88° | 87° | 84° | — | 94° | — | — | 84–94° |
| 10d · 2026-09-11 | 89° | 89° | 81° | — | 88° | — | — | 81–89° |
| 9d · 2026-09-12 | 88° | 92° | 86° | 89° | 84° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 8d · 2026-09-13 | 81° | 95° | 81° | 86° | 88° | — | — | 81–95° |
| 7d · 2026-09-14 | 87° | 88° | 87° | 89° | 89° | — | — | 87–89° |
| 6d · 2026-09-15 | 86° | 92° | 87° | 92° | 89° | 95° | 91° | 86–95° |
| 5d · 2026-09-16 | 87° | 93° | 86° | 93° | 91° | 86° | 96° | 86–96° |
| 4d · 2026-09-17 | 87° | 95° | 88° | 93° | 91° | 90° | 95° | 87–95° |
| 3d · 2026-09-18 | 87° | 96° | 88° | 94° | 92° | 91° | 94° | 87–96° |
| 2d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 95° | 87° | 94° | 93° | 91° | 94° | 87–95° |
| 1d · 2026-09-20 | 87° | 92° | 87° | 93° | 93° | 88° | 92° | 87–93° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.