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Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Mon Sep 21?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations

14 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Mon Sep 21 high anywhere from 27° to 31°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 32° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 1.1°. GEM ran 2° warm.

14 days out the models said 27–31; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 1.1°C); GEM ran 2°C warm.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Sep 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-06 — 31° — — 28° — — 28–31°
14d · 2026-09-07 27° 28° 31° — 30° — — 27–31°
13d · 2026-09-08 28° 26° 28° — 33° — — 26–33°
12d · 2026-09-09 31° 25° 27° — 32° — — 25–32°
11d · 2026-09-10 31° 30° 29° — 35° — — 29–35°
10d · 2026-09-11 32° 32° 27° — 31° — — 27–32°
9d · 2026-09-12 31° 33° 30° 32° 29° — — 29–33°
8d · 2026-09-13 27° 35° 27° 30° 31° — — 27–35°
7d · 2026-09-14 30° 31° 31° 32° 31° — — 30–32°
6d · 2026-09-15 30° 33° 30° 33° 32° 35° 33° 30–35°
5d · 2026-09-16 30° 34° 30° 34° 33° 30° 35° 30–35°
4d · 2026-09-17 31° 35° 31° 34° 33° 32° 35° 31–35°
3d · 2026-09-18 30° 35° 31° 35° 33° 33° 34° 30–35°
2d · 2026-09-19 31° 35° 31° 34° 34° 33° 35° 31–35°
1d · 2026-09-20 31° 33° 30° 34° 34° 31° 33° 30–34°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.