Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Sep 20?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
13 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 85° to 91°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 91° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 90° | — | — | 92° | — | — | 90–92° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 85° | 82° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 79–85° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 86° | 91° | 85° | — | 86° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 88° | 86° | 78° | — | 84° | — | — | 78–88° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 87° | 90° | 85° | — | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 87° | 85° | 81° | — | 85° | — | — | 81–87° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 88° | 91° | 80° | — | 88° | — | — | 80–91° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 89° | 91° | 84° | 87° | 91° | — | — | 84–91° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 87° | 90° | 83° | 89° | 88° | — | — | 83–90° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 86° | 87° | 83° | 86° | 90° | 90° | — | 83–90° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 89° | 85° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 95° | 94° | 85–95° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 87° | 93° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 87–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 88° | 94° | 90° | 93° | 94° | 94° | 93° | 88–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 87° | 94° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 87–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 88° | 94° | 90° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 92° | 88–94° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 88° | 93° | 89° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 88–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.