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Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Sun Sep 20?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations

13 days out, 4 models put New Orleans's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 30° to 33°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 33° against the NEW observations — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 2° cool.

13 days out the models said 30–33; it hit 33. UKMO led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 2°C cool.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-09-05 — 32° — — 33° — — 32–33°
14d · 2026-09-06 29° 28° — — 26° — — 26–29°
13d · 2026-09-07 30° 33° 30° — 30° — — 30–33°
12d · 2026-09-08 31° 30° 26° — 29° — — 26–31°
11d · 2026-09-09 30° 32° 29° — 34° — — 29–34°
10d · 2026-09-10 31° 30° 27° — 30° — — 27–31°
9d · 2026-09-11 31° 33° 27° — 31° — — 27–33°
8d · 2026-09-12 32° 33° 29° 31° 33° — — 29–33°
7d · 2026-09-13 30° 32° 28° 32° 31° — — 28–32°
6d · 2026-09-14 30° 30° 28° 30° 32° 32° — 28–32°
5d · 2026-09-15 31° 30° 33° 33° 33° 35° 34° 30–35°
4d · 2026-09-16 31° 34° 32° 32° 34° 34° 34° 31–34°
3d · 2026-09-17 31° 34° 32° 34° 34° 34° 34° 31–34°
2d · 2026-09-18 31° 34° 32° 34° 34° 34° 34° 31–34°
1d · 2026-09-19 31° 34° 32° 34° 34° 33° 33° 31–34°
0d · 2026-09-20 31° 34° 32° 34° 34° 34° 33° 31–34°
actual 33°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.