Was the forecast right for Milan on Sun Oct 25?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Sun Oct 25 high anywhere from 60° to 64°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 58°. The day verified at 56° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 4° warm.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Oct 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-10 | — | 55° | — | — | 62° | — | — | 55–62° |
| 14d · 2026-10-11 | 60° | 64° | 62° | — | 60° | — | — | 60–64° |
| 13d · 2026-10-12 | 54° | 64° | 58° | — | 67° | — | — | 54–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-13 | — | 66° | 61° | — | 66° | — | — | 61–66° |
| 11d · 2026-10-14 | 64° | 64° | 66° | — | 63° | — | — | 63–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-15 | 60° | 66° | 65° | — | 69° | — | — | 60–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-16 | 62° | 68° | 67° | 61° | 68° | — | — | 61–68° |
| 8d · 2026-10-17 | 62° | 64° | 58° | 59° | 62° | — | — | 58–64° |
| 7d · 2026-10-18 | 56° | 60° | 55° | 57° | 58° | — | — | 55–60° |
| 6d · 2026-10-19 | 57° | 60° | 56° | 57° | 60° | 59° | 59° | 56–60° |
| 5d · 2026-10-20 | 53° | 58° | 58° | 54° | 59° | 60° | 59° | 53–60° |
| 4d · 2026-10-21 | 58° | 60° | 58° | 53° | 58° | 58° | 60° | 53–60° |
| 3d · 2026-10-22 | 60° | 61° | 59° | 54° | 59° | 58° | 59° | 54–61° |
| 2d · 2026-10-23 | 59° | 58° | 59° | 56° | 58° | 56° | 58° | 56–59° |
| 1d · 2026-10-24 | 58° | 59° | 58° | 56° | 60° | 59° | 58° | 56–60° |
| actual | 56° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.