Was the forecast right for Milan on Thu Oct 22?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 64° to 71°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 69° against the LIML observations, with 0.01 in of precipitation — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. GEM ran 10° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 59° | — | — | 60° | — | — | 59–60° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 64° | 71° | 67° | — | 64° | — | — | 64–71° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 67° | 60° | 66° | — | 66° | — | — | 60–67° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 63° | 59° | 60° | — | 66° | — | — | 59–66° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 60° | 66° | 58° | — | 65° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | 61° | 69° | 69° | — | 66° | — | — | 61–69° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | — | 68° | 61° | 70° | 67° | — | — | 61–70° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 61° | 58° | 66° | 58° | 60° | — | — | 58–66° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 65° | 65° | 66° | 60° | 66° | — | — | 60–66° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 69° | 66° | 65° | 62° | 65° | 69° | 62° | 62–69° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 69° | 68° | 68° | 62° | 66° | 66° | 64° | 62–69° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 67° | 65° | 60° | 65° | 66° | 69° | 60–69° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 67° | 65° | 66° | 59° | 64° | 68° | 67° | 59–68° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 66° | 65° | 64° | 59° | 65° | 69° | 66° | 59–69° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 66° | 65° | 66° | 59° | 64° | 67° | 69° | 59–69° |
| actual | 69° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.