Was the forecast right for Milan on Wed Sep 23?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Wed Sep 23 high anywhere from 59° to 79°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 74°. The day verified at 76° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.4°. ECMWF ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Sep 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-08 | — | 78° | — | — | 79° | — | — | 78–79° |
| 14d · 2026-09-09 | 76° | 76° | 59° | — | 79° | — | — | 59–79° |
| 13d · 2026-09-10 | 69° | 75° | 73° | — | 78° | — | — | 69–78° |
| 12d · 2026-09-11 | 80° | 65° | 76° | — | 68° | — | — | 65–80° |
| 11d · 2026-09-12 | 76° | 74° | 78° | — | 73° | — | — | 73–78° |
| 10d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 82° | 70° | — | 84° | — | — | 70–84° |
| 9d · 2026-09-14 | 78° | 84° | 72° | 85° | 82° | — | — | 72–85° |
| 8d · 2026-09-15 | 74° | 75° | 74° | 81° | 74° | — | — | 74–81° |
| 7d · 2026-09-16 | 74° | 73° | 70° | 78° | 72° | — | — | 70–78° |
| 6d · 2026-09-17 | 74° | 71° | 71° | 75° | 68° | 72° | 77° | 68–77° |
| 5d · 2026-09-18 | 74° | 72° | 74° | 79° | 75° | 73° | 76° | 72–79° |
| 4d · 2026-09-19 | 74° | 73° | 74° | 75° | 75° | 74° | 73° | 73–75° |
| 3d · 2026-09-20 | 73° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 73° | 73–74° |
| 2d · 2026-09-21 | 73° | 73° | 73° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 74° | 73–74° |
| 1d · 2026-09-22 | 73° | 74° | 72° | 74° | 73° | 75° | 75° | 72–75° |
| actual | 76° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.