Was the forecast right for Milan on Sun Sep 20?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Sun Sep 20 high anywhere from 70° to 81°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. The day verified at 83° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. ECMWF ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Sep 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-05 | — | 77° | — | — | 69° | — | — | 69–77° |
| 14d · 2026-09-06 | 76° | 80° | 81° | — | 70° | — | — | 70–81° |
| 13d · 2026-09-07 | 76° | 75° | 72° | — | 80° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 12d · 2026-09-08 | 72° | 69° | 75° | — | 79° | — | — | 69–79° |
| 11d · 2026-09-09 | 74° | 71° | 81° | — | 80° | — | — | 71–81° |
| 10d · 2026-09-10 | 76° | 74° | 76° | — | 75° | — | — | 74–76° |
| 9d · 2026-09-11 | 77° | 76° | 78° | 78° | 81° | — | — | 76–81° |
| 8d · 2026-09-12 | 79° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 77° | — | — | 77–79° |
| 7d · 2026-09-13 | 79° | 82° | 75° | 81° | 79° | — | — | 75–82° |
| 6d · 2026-09-14 | 79° | 81° | 76° | 82° | 79° | 79° | 78° | 76–82° |
| 5d · 2026-09-15 | 79° | 79° | 76° | 82° | 79° | 81° | 80° | 76–82° |
| 4d · 2026-09-16 | 79° | 80° | 77° | 81° | 80° | 79° | 79° | 77–81° |
| 3d · 2026-09-17 | 79° | 81° | 79° | 81° | 82° | 82° | 80° | 79–82° |
| 2d · 2026-09-18 | 79° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 81° | 79–81° |
| 1d · 2026-09-19 | 80° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 81° | 81° | 82° | 79–82° |
| 0d · 2026-09-20 | 80° | 80° | 79° | 81° | 83° | 81° | 83° | 79–83° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.