Was the forecast right for Milan on Thu Sep 10?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Thu Sep 10 high anywhere from 69° to 88°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 68°. The day verified at 72° against the LIML observations, with 1.4 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.2°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Sep 10 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labeled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-26 | — | 82° | — | — | 67° | — | — | 67–82° |
| 14d · 2026-08-27 | 69° | 88° | 74° | — | 87° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 13d · 2026-08-28 | 74° | 72° | 78° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–78° |
| 12d · 2026-08-29 | 78° | 85° | 92° | — | 91° | — | — | 78–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-30 | 70° | 82° | 92° | — | 78° | — | — | 70–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-31 | 82° | 82° | 79° | — | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 9d · 2026-09-01 | 72° | 73° | 84° | 70° | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 8d · 2026-09-02 | 71° | 76° | 76° | 74° | 75° | — | — | 71–76° |
| 7d · 2026-09-03 | 76° | 77° | 79° | 67° | 75° | — | — | 67–79° |
| 6d · 2026-09-04 | 74° | 78° | 83° | 78° | 74° | 73° | — | 73–83° |
| 5d · 2026-09-05 | 70° | 72° | 74° | 75° | 72° | 76° | 80° | 70–80° |
| 4d · 2026-09-06 | 74° | 76° | 79° | 77° | 77° | 76° | 78° | 74–79° |
| 3d · 2026-09-07 | 70° | 69° | 75° | 66° | 77° | 68° | 75° | 66–77° |
| 2d · 2026-09-08 | 68° | 70° | 70° | 67° | 68° | 68° | 72° | 67–72° |
| 1d · 2026-09-09 | 68° | 66° | 70° | 66° | 67° | 70° | 77° | 66–77° |
| actual | 72° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this day was verified, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; verified days exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.