Was the forecast right for Milan on Tue Sep 8?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
14 days out, 4 models put Milan's Tue Sep 8 high anywhere from 78° to 87°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 91° against the LIML observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Sep 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-24 | — | 81° | — | — | 78° | — | — | 78–81° |
| 14d · 2026-08-25 | 79° | 84° | 87° | — | 78° | — | — | 78–87° |
| 13d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 77° | 87° | — | 93° | — | — | 77–93° |
| 12d · 2026-08-27 | 77° | 86° | 80° | — | 86° | — | — | 77–86° |
| 11d · 2026-08-28 | 79° | 80° | 74° | — | 90° | — | — | 74–90° |
| 10d · 2026-08-29 | 79° | 88° | 94° | — | 94° | — | — | 79–94° |
| 9d · 2026-08-30 | 81° | 87° | 86° | 89° | 91° | — | — | 81–91° |
| 8d · 2026-08-31 | 89° | 91° | 94° | 92° | 94° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 7d · 2026-09-01 | 87° | 93° | 94° | 93° | 93° | — | — | 87–94° |
| 6d · 2026-09-02 | 86° | 87° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 90° | 86–92° |
| 5d · 2026-09-03 | 87° | 89° | 93° | 92° | 88° | 89° | 91° | 87–93° |
| 4d · 2026-09-04 | 89° | 89° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 89–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-05 | 88° | 90° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 88–92° |
| 2d · 2026-09-06 | 89° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 90° | 89° | 89–92° |
| 1d · 2026-09-07 | 90° | 88° | 92° | 90° | 90° | 92° | 93° | 88–93° |
| actual | 91° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.