Was the forecast right for Milan on Fri Sep 4?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
13 days out, 4 models put Milan's Fri Sep 4 high anywhere from 73° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 95° against the LIML observations — partly cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Sep 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d · 2026-08-22 | 83° | 82° | 73° | — | 82° | — | — | 73–83° |
| 12d · 2026-08-23 | 77° | 92° | 78° | — | 91° | — | — | 77–92° |
| 11d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 83° | 76° | — | 78° | — | — | 76–83° |
| 10d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 90° | 84° | — | 89° | — | — | 84–90° |
| 9d · 2026-08-26 | 80° | 89° | 85° | 90° | 86° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-27 | 85° | 84° | 87° | 92° | 86° | — | — | 84–92° |
| 7d · 2026-08-28 | 84° | 92° | 82° | 82° | 86° | — | — | 82–92° |
| 6d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 91° | 89° | 90° | 92° | 91° | 86° | 86–92° |
| 5d · 2026-08-30 | 84° | 94° | 94° | 93° | 92° | 89° | 89° | 84–94° |
| 4d · 2026-08-31 | 87° | 91° | 93° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 87–93° |
| 3d · 2026-09-01 | 89° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 89–94° |
| 2d · 2026-09-02 | 89° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 89–94° |
| 1d · 2026-09-03 | 90° | 94° | 95° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 90–95° |
| 0d · 2026-09-04 | 91° | 92° | 94° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 93° | 91–94° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.