Was the forecast right for Milan on Sun Aug 30?
Milan, Lombardy · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the LIML observations
8 days out, 5 models put Milan's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 81° to 86°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 86°. The day verified at 88° against the LIML observations — cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIGFS ran 3° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Milan scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 81° | 83° | 84° | 82° | 86° | — | — | 81–86° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 83° | 84° | 81° | 88° | 86° | — | — | 81–88° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 88° | 89° | 84° | 82° | 82–89° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 86° | 89° | 84° | 89° | 86° | 87° | 85° | 84–89° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 85° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 88° | 87° | 86° | 85–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 86° | 88° | 86° | 88° | 86° | 87° | 85° | 85–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 86–88° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 85° | 86° | 87° | 86° | 87° | 88° | 85–88° |
| actual | 88° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Milan — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the LIML observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.