Was the forecast right for Miami on Mon Aug 17?
Miami, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Miami's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 88° to 90°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 95° against the ECMWF IFS analysis — clear.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Miami scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 88° | — | — | 91° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 90° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–90° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 89° | 90° | 88° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–90° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 91° | 88° | 90° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–91° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 89° | 92° | 89° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 89° | 91° | — | 88° | — | — | 88–92° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 91° | 89° | 92° | 91° | 87° | — | — | 87–92° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 90° | 94° | 91° | 93° | 89° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 90° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 89° | — | — | 89–96° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 90° | 95° | 93° | 91° | 91° | 96° | 96° | 90–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 90° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 92° | 95° | 94° | 90–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 91° | 96° | 92° | 94° | 91° | 92° | 95° | 91–96° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 91° | 96° | 92° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 96° | 91–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 91° | 97° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 93° | 97° | 91–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 91° | 96° | 94° | 92° | 91° | 93° | 98° | 91–98° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Miami — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 2 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.