Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Oct 22?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Oct 22 high anywhere from 70° to 91°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 66°. The day verified at 70° against the FHMC1 observations, with 0.41 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. GEM ran 6° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 22 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-10-07 | — | 72° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 14d · 2026-10-08 | 70° | 86° | 91° | — | 88° | — | — | 70–91° |
| 13d · 2026-10-09 | 87° | 89° | 78° | — | 85° | — | — | 78–89° |
| 12d · 2026-10-10 | 73° | 76° | 78° | — | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-11 | 75° | 72° | 72° | — | 92° | — | — | 72–92° |
| 10d · 2026-10-12 | — | 77° | 75° | — | 78° | — | — | 75–78° |
| 9d · 2026-10-13 | 74° | 69° | 73° | 72° | 73° | — | — | 69–74° |
| 8d · 2026-10-14 | 68° | 69° | 69° | 68° | 73° | — | — | 68–73° |
| 7d · 2026-10-15 | 64° | 68° | 69° | 72° | 70° | — | — | 64–72° |
| 6d · 2026-10-16 | 66° | 67° | 74° | 66° | 72° | 69° | 69° | 66–74° |
| 5d · 2026-10-17 | 65° | 68° | 70° | 67° | 70° | 67° | 70° | 65–70° |
| 4d · 2026-10-18 | 66° | 68° | 68° | 70° | 71° | 69° | 70° | 66–71° |
| 3d · 2026-10-19 | 66° | 67° | 68° | 63° | 72° | 69° | 71° | 63–72° |
| 2d · 2026-10-20 | 66° | 67° | 68° | 64° | 70° | 67° | 69° | 64–70° |
| 1d · 2026-10-21 | 66° | 66° | 66° | 64° | 69° | 66° | 65° | 64–69° |
| actual | 70° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.