Was the forecast right for Los Angeles on Thu Oct 15?
Los Angeles, California · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the FHMC1 observations
14 days out, 4 models put Los Angeles's Thu Oct 15 high anywhere from 70° to 82°;by the final call, the day before, the field had settled to a median of 91°. The day verified at 92° against the FHMC1 observations — clear.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 4° cool.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Oct 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Los Angeles scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-09-30 | — | 69° | — | — | 81° | — | — | 69–81° |
| 14d · 2026-10-01 | 70° | 71° | 76° | — | 82° | — | — | 70–82° |
| 13d · 2026-10-02 | 75° | 78° | 83° | — | 94° | — | — | 75–94° |
| 12d · 2026-10-03 | 76° | 74° | 71° | — | 87° | — | — | 71–87° |
| 11d · 2026-10-04 | 80° | 68° | 79° | — | 85° | — | — | 68–85° |
| 10d · 2026-10-05 | 86° | 72° | 79° | — | 84° | — | — | 72–86° |
| 9d · 2026-10-06 | 86° | 86° | 74° | — | 76° | — | — | 74–86° |
| 8d · 2026-10-07 | 74° | 79° | 76° | 92° | 77° | — | — | 74–92° |
| 7d · 2026-10-08 | 85° | 69° | 81° | 88° | 81° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 6d · 2026-10-09 | 88° | 78° | 82° | 87° | 84° | 93° | 83° | 78–93° |
| 5d · 2026-10-10 | 90° | 84° | 88° | 87° | 87° | 91° | 86° | 84–91° |
| 4d · 2026-10-11 | 88° | 92° | 90° | 87° | 90° | 84° | 85° | 84–92° |
| 3d · 2026-10-12 | — | 91° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 90° | 88° | 88–92° |
| 2d · 2026-10-13 | 90° | 91° | 92° | 91° | 88° | 90° | 88° | 88–92° |
| 1d · 2026-10-14 | 90° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 90° | 91° | 88° | 88–92° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Los Angeles — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the FHMC1 observations. The actual values are the ones in hand when this receipt was settled, usually 4 days after the date; a correction published after that is not carried into it. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.